THE NYC PROMISE BILL / CENTRAL ESTIMATE
$6.90B/ YEAR01 / THE RECURRING BILL
The Citizens Budget Commission estimates that replacing fares would exceed $900 million in the first year. The administration has cited about $700 million; the MTA has cited about $1 billion.
CITIZENS BUDGET COMMISSION · 2026 ↗The campaign estimate for universal no-cost childcare was roughly $6 billion annually. The current rollout is phased and does not yet represent that full recurring cost.
TIME · PROGRAM COST SUMMARY · 2025 ↗The mayor says the agreement with the governor funds 2,000 free two-year-old seats this year and 12,000 next year, with a four-year path toward universal two-year-old care.
NYC MAYOR'S OFFICE · JULY 28, 2026 ↗02 / CONGESTION PRICING
The MTA forecasts $500 million in annual congestion-toll revenue through 2027 and $700 million in 2028–29, committed to its capital program.
MTA 2026 FINANCIAL PLAN ↗A 2026 NYC DOT study found the toll likely had little impact on parking patterns inside and around the zone. No reliable public estimate currently quantifies lost private-garage profit or related city tax revenue.
NYC DOT PARKING STUDY · 2026 ↗03 / GOVERNMENT-PUBLISHED TAX-LOSS ESTIMATES
$2.20B / LATEST ANNUAL SNAPSHOTSThis is the sum of three government estimates using different years. It is not a same-year national total and does not prove that any single politician caused the loss.
California's Legislative Analyst estimated that 2022 net outmigration reduced 2022–23 personal-income-tax revenue by 1.6%. Applied to the LAO's reported $101.7 billion in receipts, that equals about $1.63 billion.
The New York State Comptroller estimated nearly $360 million in foregone state revenue from net taxpayer migration in 2019. This is statewide, not a New York City-only figure.
Massachusetts reports that 2021 outmigration removed $4.3 billion of adjusted gross income and an estimated $213.7 million of tax revenue.
04 / PEOPLE AND INCOME MOVING BETWEEN STATES
Net adjusted gross income is tax base, not tax revenue. It must not be added dollar-for-dollar to a government budget cost.
IRS STATE-TO-STATE MIGRATION DATA · 2022–23 ↗05 / CORPORATE CLAIM CHECK
JPMorganChase opened its new global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in 2025. It reports 24,000 New York City employees, 10,000 seats in the new tower, and a $42 billion annual contribution to the city economy.
JPMORGANCHASE · OCT. 21, 2025 ↗Citadel moved its global headquarters from Chicago to Miami in 2022. Its own announcement said it would continue growing teams in New York. It is evidence for Illinois/Chicago flight—not a New York City tax-loss entry.
CITADEL SECURITIES · JUNE 23, 2022 ↗Tesla moved its headquarters to Austin in 2021. X moved its headquarters from San Francisco to Bastrop in 2024, and SpaceX moved its headquarters to Starbase, Texas.
SEC / ASSOCIATED PRESS ↗SECOND SOURCE ↗Texas says SpaceX's first Grimes County Terafab phase exceeds $16.8 billion and is expected to create more than 3,000 jobs. That is investment—not tax revenue, and not proof that the entire amount was lost by California.
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS GOVERNOR · 2026 ↗06 / EVERY U.S. POLITICAL PROFILE ON THIS SITE
Names are associated with their listed jurisdiction only. A state migration estimate is not assigned as personal blame, and one statewide figure is never multiplied by the number of politicians.
No directly comparable government tax-loss estimate is counted.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
2019 FULL-YEAR ESTIMATE government tax-revenue estimate.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
2021 ESTIMATE government tax-revenue estimate.
2022–23 ESTIMATE government tax-revenue estimate.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
IRS 2022–23 net AGI migration; not tax revenue.
Program cost, tax revenue loss, lost adjusted gross income, economic output, capital investment, and company headcount are different measures. This page keeps them separate and publishes a number only when a source supports it.